Posted November 06, 2018 08:29pm
TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — Republicans are trying to hold on to an eastern Kansas congressional seat Tuesday with a little-known candidate who spent most of his adult life outside the state and was caught embellishing his credentials.
The district represented by retiring GOP Rep. Lynn Jenkins leans Republican and President Donald Trump carried it by nearly 17 percentage points two years ago. Republican Steve Watkins emerged from a bruising seven-person primary that saw one opponent label him a "fraud" and some local leaders question his commitment to the party.
"I just can't trust Steve Watkins," said Allan Willis, a 44-year-old Democrat and excavating foreman from Topeka.
Willis voted for Democrat Democrat Paul Davis, a former Kansas House minority leader and Lawrence attorney, who carried the district in an unsuccessful run for governor in 2014 and raised $3.6 million for his congressional race.
Watkins had Trump's endorsement and help from a relatively strong economy. Tuffy Radford, a 37-year-old Republican from Topeka, was confident enough about the economy earlier this year to start his own tile-setting business after struggling to find work a few years ago. He voted for Watkins.
"I need to keep the economy going in my direction," he said. "The economy's booming."
Davis pitched himself to voters as a commonsense centrist who worked with Republicans during his legislative career. He started his campaign by promising that he wouldn't support Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi for House speaker if Democrats recapture a majority.
He also stressed health care issues, promising to fight to keep prescription drug prices in check and protect health coverage for people with pre-existing medical conditions.
None of those stances prevented Republicans, including Watkins, from attacking Davis as a Pelosi liberal.
Watkins himself emerged as an issue despite his attractive profile as a political outsider and a West Point graduate who served in Afghanistan and then worked there, in Iraq and in Central Asia as a government contractor. He's run the famed Iditarod dog sled race twice in Alaska and attempted to scale Mount Everest in 2015.
But he was caught exaggerating his role in a small business in the Middle East and removed a quote about his "heroic leadership" during the Mount Everest expedition attributed to his guide, after the guide told The Associated Press that he'd never said it.
Even before, Republican critics noted that the Topeka native had spent most of his adult life living outside Kansas and had not voted in the state until a municipal election in November 2017, after he'd decided to run for Congress.
Also, Watkins' father, a Topeka physician, was heavily involved in the race as the almost-exclusive source of funding for a political action committee, Kansans Can Do Anything, boosting his son's candidacy. The elder Watkins contributed more than $765,000 to the PAC.
One former GOP foe, ex-state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, called him "a charlatan, a fraud and an opportunist," days before the August primary, though he later wouldn't criticize Watkins. Some GOP leaders also were wary of him after three Democrats said publicly that he met with them last year about running as a Democrat — something he strongly disputed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump was a dominant force in the 2018 midterm elections as attitudes toward the polarizing leader influenced the decisions of more than 6 in 10 voters.
Nearly 40 percent of voters cast their ballots to express opposition to the president, according to AP VoteCast, a national survey of the electorate, while about 25 percent said they voted to express support for Trump.
While Trump is not on the ballot, his controversial presidency has animated voters on both sides of the aisle, with 2018 likely to set turnout records for a midterm election. Democrats have been activated in opposition to Trump since the moment of his election, while in recent weeks Trump has driven Republicans to the polls by trying to cast the race as a referendum on his administration. The outcomes of Tuesday's races, which will determine control of Congress, stand to alter the course of the Trump presidency.
The snapshot of who voted and why comes from preliminary results of VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 113,000 voters and about 20,000 nonvoters conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.
Democrats looking to seize control of Congress have pinned their hopes on women and minority voters, while Republicans have hoped to retain majorities by preserving support among the bloc of voters who propelled Trump to the White House in 2016.
According to VoteCast, women voted considerably more in favor of their congressional Democratic candidate: About 6 in 10 voted for the Democrat, compared with 4 in 10 for the Republican. Men, by contrast, were more evenly divided in their vote.
Urbanites voted almost 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats, and small-town and rural voters cast votes for Republicans by a smaller margin.
In suburban areas, where key House races will be decided, voters skewed significantly toward Democrats by a nearly 10-point margin.
Non-white voters cast ballots for Democrats by a roughly 3-to-1 margin.
Democrats need to gain a net of at least 23 seats in the House and two seats in the Senate to win majorities in the respective chambers.
Ahead of the election, both parties claimed the emotionally charged debate over the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh would motivate their supporters to turn out. Kavanaugh faced multiple allegations of sexual misconduct from his youth that he denied.
According to VoteCast, half of voters said the tumultuous process was very important to their vote and they broke for the Democratic House candidate. Still, an overwhelming majority of voters in both parties said the Kavanaugh debate was at least somewhat important to their vote.
Both parties' closing messages appeared to have animated their respective bases, according to VoteCast, with health care and immigration each described as the most important issues in the election by about 25 percent of voters. Of those who listed health care as the most important issue facing the nation, about 3 in 4 voted for the Democratic candidate. About the same percentage who described immigration as the most important issue cast ballots for the Republican.
Opposition to Trump proved to be more a motivating factor for Democrats than support for the president a factor for Republicans. Still, Republican voters tended to be overwhelmingly supportive of the president.
More voters disapproved of Trump's job performance than approved — a finding that is largely consistent with recent polling.
Voters scored Trump positively on the economy and for standing up "for what he believes in." But the president received negative marks from voters on temperament and trustworthiness.
Still, about one-third of voters said Trump was not a factor in their votes.
With the final days of the 2018 campaign interrupted by a spate of politically motivated attempted bombings and a massacre at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, about 2 in 10 Democratic and Republican voters think their own party's way of talking about politics is leading to an increase in violence.
VoteCast debuted Tuesday, replacing the in-person exit poll as a source of detailed information about the American electorate. Developed with NORC at the University of Chicago, it combines a random sample survey of registered voters and a massive poll conducted via opt-in online panels. The resulting research has the accuracy of random sampling and the depth provided by an online poll that interviews tens of thousands.
VoteCast results cannot be reliably compared to the results of previous exit polls, as the two surveys use different methodologies to poll the electorate. Differences between the two may be the result of differences in survey methods, rather than real changes in opinions or makeup of the electorate over time.
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans were clinging to delicate majorities in the House and Senate Tuesday night as an anxious nation watched whether voters would reward or reject the GOP in the first nationwide election of Donald Trump's turbulent presidency.
With control of Congress and statehouses across the nation at stake, many of the nation's top elections were too close to call.
Democrats seized early victories in contested House races in Florida and in Virginia, but lost a high-profile contest in Kentucky.
At the same time, Democrats re-elected embattled New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, who, less than a year ago, stood trial for federal corruption charges. The Justice Department dropped the charges after his trial ended in an hung jury.
In Virginia, political newcomer Jennifer Wexton defeated two-term GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock. The Republican incumbent had been branded Barbara "Trumpstock" by Democrats in a race that pointed to Trump's unpopularity among college-educated women in the suburbs.
In south Florida, former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala defeated Republican Maria Elvira Salazar.
Democrats failed to defeat a vulnerable incumbent in Kentucky, where Republican Rep. Andy Barr won over former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath.
Anxious Republicans privately expressed confidence in their narrow Senate majority but feared the House could slip away. The GOP's grip on high-profile governorships in Florida , Georgia and Wisconsin were at risk as well.
Fundraising, polls and history were not on the president's side.
"Everything we have achieved is at stake," Trump declared in his final day of campaigning.
Long lines and malfunctioning machines marred the first hours of voting in some precincts, including in Georgia, where some voters reported waiting up to three hours to vote in a hotly contested gubernatorial election. More than 40 million Americans had already voted, either by mail or in person, breaking early voting records across 37 states, according to an AP analysis.
Nearly 40 percent of voters cast their ballots to express opposition to the president, according to AP VoteCast, a national survey of the electorate, while one-in-four said they voted to express support for Trump.
The nationwide survey indicated that nearly two-thirds said Trump was a reason for their vote.
Overall, 6 in 10 voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, but roughly that same number described the national economy as excellent or good.
Two issues more than any others were on voters' minds: 25 percent described health care and immigration as the most important issues in the election.
Trump encouraged voters to view the first nationwide election of his presidency as a referendum on his leadership, pointing proudly to the surging economy at recent rallies.
He bet big on a xenophobic closing message, warning of an immigrant "invasion" that promised to spread violent crime and drugs across the nation. Several television networks, including the president's favorite Fox News Channel, yanked a Trump campaign advertisement off the air on the eve of the election, determining that its portrayal of a murderous immigrant went too far.
The president's current job approval, set at 40 percent by Gallup, was the lowest at this point of any first-term president in the modern era. Both Barack Obama's and Bill Clinton's numbers were 5 points higher, and both suffered major midterm losses of 63 and 54 House seats respectively.
Democrats needed to pick up two dozen seats to seize the House majority and two seats to control the Senate.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House were up for re-election, although fewer than 90 were considered competitive. Some 35 Senate seats were in play, as were almost 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.
Meanwhile, several 2020 presidential prospects easily won re-election, including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Trump spent Tuesday at the White House, tweeting, making calls, monitoring the races and meeting with his political team.
He and the first lady were to host an evening watch party for family and friends. Among those expected: Vice President Mike Pence and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, an informal adviser to the president.
Democrats, whose very relevance in the Trump era depended on winning at least one chamber of Congress, were laser-focused on health care as they predicted victories that would break up the GOP's monopoly in Washington and state governments.
The political and practical stakes were sky-high.
Democrats could derail Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years should they win control of the House or the Senate. Perhaps more important, they would claim subpoena power to investigate Trump's personal and professional shortcomings.
Some Democrats have already vowed to force the release of his tax returns. Others have pledged to pursue impeachment, although removal from office is unlikely so long as the GOP controls the Senate or even maintains a healthy minority.
Tuesday's elections also tested the strength of a Trump-era political realignment defined by evolving divisions among voters by race, gender, and especially education.
Trump's Republican coalition is increasingly older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree. Democrats are relying more upon women, people of color, young people and college graduates.
Women voted considerably more in favor of their congressional Democratic candidate — with fewer than 4 in 10 voting for the Republican, according to VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 113,000 voters and about 20,000 nonvoters — conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.
In suburban areas where key House races will be decided, voters skewed significantly toward Democrats by a nearly 10-point margin.
The demographic divides were coloring the political landscape in different ways.
Democrats were most optimistic about the House, a sprawling battlefield set largely in America's suburbs where more educated and affluent voters in both parties have soured on Trump's turbulent presidency, despite the strength of the national economy.
Democrats faced a far more difficult challenge in the Senate, where they were almost exclusively on defense in rural states where Trump remains popular. Democratic Senate incumbents were up for re-election, for example, in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri — states Trump carried by almost 25 percentage points on average two years ago.
History was working against the president in the Senate: 2002 was the only midterm election in the past three decades when the party holding the White House gained Senate seats.
Democrats boasted record diversity on ballots.
Three states could elect their first African-American governors, while several others were running LGBT candidates and Muslims. A record number of women were running for Senate, House, governorships and state legislative seats.
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Associated Press writers Eric Tucker, Jill Colvin and Zeke Miller in Washington, Kantele Franko in Westerville, Ohio and Michael Kunzelman in Silver Spring, Maryland, contributed to this report.
For AP's complete coverage of the U.S. midterm elections: http://apne.ws/APPolitics